Webber: Racial equity and growth are key to halting St. Louis' decline
For almost a decade, I have led a long-term study of growth and equity in the St. Louis region and St. Louis city compared to other large regions and cities in the Midwest and Southeast. I’ve used three criteria for success. First is population growth: Is a region becoming larger, more capable of competing with Chicago and Atlanta? Second is per capita income growth: Is the average person becoming more economically secure? Third is Black-white wealth and income gaps: Are we becoming more equal?
The data suggests that St. Louis is underperforming dramatically on growth and economic equality, and that turning around these trends depends on raising Black incomes in the St. Louis region. In 1970, St. Louis was the 10th-largest region by population in the United States. It is now the 21st-largest. In 1970, our region had almost twice the population of Atlanta. In 2019, Atlanta was over twice the size of St. Louis. Between 2000 and 2019, the St. Louis region grew by 5% while the United States population grew by 15%. The trends in the city of St. Louis, the heart of our region, are particularly challenging. In 1910, St. Louis was the fourth-largest city in the country. We are now the 65th. As we become a smaller and less important region in the country, it is harder to recruit companies, conventions and highly mobile workers.
The story of regional income growth by race is complex. Between 2000 and 2019, the average per capita income in St. Louis grew (in inflation-adjusted dollars) by 3%. That is about the national average. What is very distressing, however, is that while white incomes in the region grew by 5%, Black incomes dropped by 1%. More than 50 years after America outlawed racial discrimination, the average per capita income for whites in our region is $40,120. The average per capita income for Blacks is $21,277. The gap is 89% — and widening, not shrinking. In the city of St. Louis, the racial gap in income is even wider.
The lack of population growth and racial disparities result from a very long period of manufacturing decline, political fragmentation and structural racism. Despite significant progress in the biotech, tech and financial sectors, St. Louis is growing too slowly and too inequitably. But the good news is that history is not destiny. Cities across the country, including America’s most prominent cities of New York and Chicago, have gone through major declines before
recovering.
The data from other cities points to several promising strategies. The most important is raising Black incomes, both as a moral imperative and a driver of regional population growth. Evidence shows that it is nearly impossible to grow a region and an economy when almost a fifth of the regional population is disproportionately poor and racial gaps are widening.
The three Midwestern and Southeastern regions with the fastest regional population growth since 2000 are Nashville, Atlanta and Charlotte, North Carolina. All have increased their population by at least 36% since 2000. All have much lower Black poverty rates than the St. Louis region. All have Black per capita incomes that are at least 15% higher than St. Louis. All have white-Black income gaps that are much lower than St. Louis and are making progress at closing those gaps.
What must happen for Black incomes to rise in St. Louis? Evidence shows that tactics that raise incomes for whites do not necessarily raise incomes for Blacks or other groups or achieve regional success. A rising tide does not lift all boats.
We need targeted strategies, beginning with strong support for the neighborhoods, public education and higher educational institutions that serve large numbers of Black students. Regions with much higher incomes for Black residents than St. Louis have, without exception, a much higher rate of college graduation for Black populations than St. Louis. Public policy and private investment must focus on job creation and workforce training in communities of color with the greatest need. And we must grow and strengthen minority businesses. In all of these areas, work is being done but much more is needed.
For the success of all, we need to create racial equity in St. Louis.
Henry S. Webber is Principal, Urban Impact Advisors. He was the former Executive Vice Chancellor at Washington University.
